Everton v Hull. The Everton Forum Match Preview
The blues made it 5 home wins on the trot last week when they comfortably saw off West Bromwich Albion.
It was a match that I built up as being key to our chances of achieving our minimum aim for the season (attaining Europa League football) so it was pleasing to see us pass the test with minimal fuss.
This weekend we welcome Hull City for what is the second of two back-to-back Saturday 3pm matches at Goodison Park.
The Tigers
Our visitors arrive at L4 on 24 points, which currently puts them in the fearsome position of 18th in the Premier League table.
When you consider that they have the joint 2nd worst defensive record in the league and can’t call upon their two-goal match winner from last weekend’s victory of Swansea City, it looks like this really should be a home banker for us.
Yet despite all that (and as much as I do expect a win here) I don’t see this being an easy match for the blues.
I don’t know what animal they’d be but let’s just say The Tigers are a different one under their new manager Marco Silva. Since the Portuguese arrived at the KCOM Stadium in the first week of January, he’s managed to pick up 11 points (3xW, 2xD, 3xL) in 8 games (plus he’s notably beaten Manchester United at home in the league cup).
Whilst that return (1.36 points per match) might not seem like a lot, it’s considerably better than Hull’s previous head coach, Mike Phelan had managed in the 20 games prior when Hull had only picked up 13 points (that’s 0.65 points per match). So, if we wanted to get really hypothetical about it, Silva’s current return of 1.36 points per game stretched over the 28 games Hull have played this season would see them all but safe on around 38 points and sat in the top half of the table.
As I’m not somebody who watches 90 minutes of Hull all that often, my knowledge of their play is fairly limited. However, what is clearly noticeable is that Silva’s done some shrewd business in the January transfer window.
Scottish free kick specialist Robert Snodgrass didn’t fancy a relegation battle so upped sticks for West Ham and Jake Livermore fancied the thrill of Tony Pulis football. Nice fees were received for each and crucially for Hull fans, Silva was allowed to reinvest the money in a squad that looked to be lacking the quality required for Premier League football.
The names bought to the club include Senegalese (world class) forward Oumar Niasse, Italian international defender Andrea Ranocchia, Senegalese midfield powerhouse Alfred N’Diaye, Norwegian right back Omar Elabdellaoui, Portugese playmaker Evandro, Polish flyer Kamil Grosicki (who I think could be at a better club) and some Serbian fella called Markovic.
Are they names that instantly get football fans excited? No (although that Oumar Niasse is quite something), but most importantly, they’ve clearly had an impact and bought something of a feel good factor to a team that, let’s face it, looked doomed under Phelan.
Looking at how Hull set up, Silva tends to employ a 433 system.
Typically the team seems to be; Jakupovic in goal, a back four of Elabdellaoui, Ranocchia, Maguire and Roberston. Immediately in front of them are N’Diaye and Huddlestone sitting which gives Sam Clucas a central box-to-box midfield role. On the wings are Markovic and Grosicki whilst through the middle is Hernandez.
It’s a team that is built around a strong central base. The theory is the central area stays nice and solid which enables the wide players (wingers and adventurous full backs) to gallop forwards and cause trouble. The theory is sound and on the whole they look a harder team to beat under Marco Silva, as well as having a little bit of quality coming forwards to hurt teams.
None the less, It’s worth noting that Hull are yet to win away from home under Marco Silva.
The Tigers have played 6 times away from the KCOM (all comps) under their new man and managed to attain 1 point (albeit at Old Trafford, a goalless draw).
Despite that, when you consider their 4 Premier League away fixtures have been at Stamford Bridge, Old Trafford, The Emirates and last time on their travels at a rejuvenated King Power Stadium – they’re yet to have a match where you’d fancy Hull to win.
I’m aware I’m at risk of jinxing it, but I don’t fancy them winning at Goodison either (although wouldn’t it just be like Everton).
The Toffees
It’s fair to say it’s been quite a week for Evertonians.
We ended last week buzzing after another resounding home win, 5 lovely Goodison wins on the spin and things were firmly looking up.
We were thinking about being back on our European tour, wondering if we can catch the teams above us, wondering when the new stadium will be announced and thinking ‘oh yeah, it’s next week Lukaku is signing his new contract, right?’
Fast-forward a few days and yep, it’s all gone very Everton, alright.
The news broke that Lukaku isn’t signing the new deal, he wants to play in the Champions League, he wants to win trophies and he’s concluded he’s not waiting for Everton to be in that position. What’s worse was that it wasn’t like it was a little murmur that came out on this, we’re talking top story on BBC Sport, Sky Sports News Yellow bar, TalkSport radio every five minutes. It was everywhere and it was constant.
What do we Evertonians do? Go online and fume obviously; some say ‘told you so’, some blame the player, some blame the board – everybody wants to blame something. Twitter is rife with it. Fans of other clubs are chiming in (I saw Tottenham fans saying they’d take him – do me a favour) and me, I write my little piece on it, discuss it on the forum but really I just want it all to go away.
Does it go away? Of course not. 24 hours later and the player himself gives an interview. Nothing like lay low and let it all blow over! Again, twitter in the run up to the story going live at 10.30pm is like Armageddon, ‘he’s going to slaughter the club, publicly say he wants to leave, we can’t pick him against Hull, he might never play for us again’ (and those were just some of my thoughts).
Thankfully the interview wasn’t the kick in the teeth we feared, in fact it tried to gloss over the kick in the bollocks we’d received the previous day. It nicely shifted blame onto the board, cited a lack of ambition from the club due to lack of quality signings but importantly stressed focus was on the rest of the season – after that, what will be, will be.
The next day came Ronald Koeman’s pre-match press conference in which he was inevitably going to field questions on the issue. Luckily, our manager is no-nonsense and no bullshit so didn’t seem too phased by the issue. Koeman made it clear he wasn’t happy with the comments whilst also reassuring us that there is a big project in place.
Unfortunately, the press conference didn’t pass without us being reminded of another accident waiting to happen – our home grown hero Ross Barkley has 15 months left on his deal and is, at this moment, wide open to leaving for a fraction of his value.
Anyway, I guess it’s good that the Barkley contract issue is being raised. It’s mysteriously been ignored for far too long and pressure from the press will hopefully lead him to signing a new deal (although we thought that with Lukaku, so who knows).
Anyway, back to Hull at home.
I didn’t want to go on and on about the issues off the pitch but let’s face it, they’ve taken a gloss away from what has been a fine run of form and there will definitely be an added edge to the atmosphere on Saturday.
First thing’s first, Romelu Lukaku will play. The manager said it himself (no need to sub him out of your fantasy teams).
Behind Rom, Koeman has a couple of niggles to contend with. Firstly, Leighton Baines came off at half time last week with a sore back and secondly, James McCarthy’s most fragile of fragile hamstrings have been tight. If I was to hazard a guess, I’d say Baines will be fine for this match but McCarthy won’t be risked and will probably be persuaded to shun Ireland’s call up to get better at Finch Farm (whether he takes that advice or not, we’ll see).
I predict we’ll see Joel Robles continue in goal (7 clean sheets in the 10 games since he came in against Liverpool. Muchos Bueno, Joel) with Seamus Coleman, Ashley Williams and Leighton Baines forming 3 of the 4 defenders.
The other centre back slot is an interesting one, I didn’t see Jagielka getting a start last week, but when he did get the call, you couldn’t fault him too much (although West Brom were poor). So, with that in mind, I’d imagine he might continue with Jagielka (even if he wasn’t great away at Hull).
In midfield Morgan Schneiderlin is a certainty to continue, however the question will be which who goes alongside him to combat a physical Hull central midfield area. The boss may look at it as another game when we’ll have a lot of the ball, so he may choose Gareth Barry or, alternatively, he’s got the option of the engine of Idrissa Gana Gueye.
I think Tom Davies will continue in a slightly more advanced role of the two selected at the base of midfield, where he’s great at receiving the ball before quickly and incisively getting rid of it to turn possession into attack.
With Lukaku certain to spearhead the attack and Ross Barkley certain to continue in a free role, the other attacking slot is likely to be occupied by Kevin Mirallas who’s assisted or scored in each of his last 3 appearances.
Overall I think the key to this match will be staying patient, scoring the first goal and then taking control of the match like we did in the second half against West Brom. If we can do that, I expect we’ll run out easy winners, if we don’t and we give Hull something to hang onto, the game will become a lot more difficult.
A quick note to anyone going, whether you’re angry with Lukaku or not, please don’t be over the top in showing your displeasure. Get behind the team, including Lukaku. Remember he’ll want to get his hands on that golden boot as that’s one trophy he can win this season.
Anyway, let’s keep going, keep winning matches and see where the rest of the season takes us.
United away and Liverpool away next – 3 points are a must here.
COYB!!